We are pleased to alert you about our new published peer-reviewed study
of longevity predictors:
Predictors of Exceptional Longevity:
Effects of Early-Life Childhood Conditions, Mid-Life Environment and
Parental CharacteristicsGavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S.
Abstract: Knowledge of strong predictors of mortality
and longevity is very important for actuarial science and practice.
Earlier studies found that parental characteristics as well as early-life
conditions and midlife environment play a significant role in survival to
advanced ages. However, little is known about the simultaneous effects of
these three factors on longevity. This ongoing study attempts to fill
this gap by comparing centenarians born in the United States in 1890–91
with peers born in the same years who died at age 65. The records for
centenarians and controls were taken from computerized family histories,
which were then linked to 1900 and 1930 U.S. censuses. As a result of
this linkage procedure, 765 records of confirmed centenarians and 783
records of controls were obtained.
Analysis with multivariate logistic regression
found that parental longevity and some midlife characteristics proved to
be significant predictors of longevity while the role of childhood
conditions was less important. More centenarians were born in the second
half of the year compared to controls, suggesting early origins of
longevity. We found the existence of both general and gender-specific
predictors of human longevity. General predictors common for men and
women are paternal and maternal longevity. Gender-specific predictors of
male longevity are the farmer occupation at age 40, Northeastern region
of birth in the United States and birth in the second half of year. A
gender-specific predictor of female longevity is surprisingly the
availability of radio in the household according to the 1930 U.S.
Given the importance of familial longevity as an
independent predictor of survival to advanced ages, we conducted a
comparative study of biological and nonbiological relatives of
centenarians using a larger sample of 1,945 validated U.S. centenarians
born in 1880–95. We found that male gender of centenarian has significant
positive effect on survival of adult male relatives (brothers and
fathers) but not female blood relatives. Life span of centenarian
siblings-in-law is lower compared to life span of centenarian siblings
and does not depend on centenarian gender. Wives of male centenarians
(who share lifestyle and living conditions) have a significantly better
survival compared to wives of centenarians’ brothers. This finding
demonstrates an important role of shared familial environment and
lifestyle in human longevity.
The results of this study suggest that familial
background, early-life conditions and midlife characteristics play an
important role in longevity. This study was supported by National
Institutes of Health (NIH) grant R01 AG028620.