Re: [GRG] New study of Longevity Risk

Dear Edouard,
Thank you for your kind message and your interest!  When you write
“Without mixing qx/mx/µx/etc.”, what do you mean by
Also please be advised that some part of the data in Human Mortality
Database (HMD) is spoiled after age 80 years by using data smoothing by
mortality deceleration (Kannisto) model.
When the reliable part of the HMD data is used, and correct estimates of
hazard rate are applied,  then there is no mortality
deceleration,  according to peer-reviewed study published by
professional scientific journal (please see attached):Biodemography of Old-Age Mortality in Humans and Rodents Natalia S. Gavrilova; Leonid A. GavrilovThe Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical
Sciences 2014;

10.1093/gerona/glu009;  PMID:
[Published online ahead of print], 9 pages
Full text is available at: link: is the abstract of this article:The growing number of persons living beyond age 80 underscores the
need for accurate measurement of mortality at advanced ages and
understanding the old-age mortality trajectories.  It is believed
that exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed
by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase at
older ages.  This pattern of mortality deceleration is traditionally
described by the logistic (Kannisto) model, which is considered as an
alternative to the Gompertz model.  Mortality deceleration was
observed for many invertebrate species, but the evidence for mammals is
We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models ­
the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for three
mammalian species: 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women,  eight
cohorts of laboratory mice, and 10 cohorts of laboratory rats.  For
all three mammalian species, the Gompertz model fits mortality data
significantly better than the “mortality deceleration” Kannisto model
(according to the Akaike’s information criterion as the goodness-of-fit
measure).  These results suggest that mortality deceleration at
advanced ages is not a universal phenomenon, and survival of mammalian
species follows the Gompertz law up to very old ages.
============================Hope this helps.


About Johnny Adams

My full-time commitment is to slow and ultimately reverse age related functional decline to increase healthy years of life. I’ve been active in this area since the 1970s, steadily building skills and accomplishments. I have a good basic understanding of the science of aging, and have many skills that complement those of scientists so they can focus on science to advance our shared mission. Broad experience Top skills: administration, management, information technology (data and programming), communications, writing, marketing, market research and analysis, public speaking, forging ethical win-win outcomes among stakeholders (i.e. high level "selling"). Knowledge in grant writing, fundraising, finance. Like most skilled professionals, I’m best described as a guy who defines an end point, then figures out how to get there. I enjoy the conception, design, execution and successful completion of a grand plan. Executive Director Gerontology Research Group (GRG). Manages Email discussion forum, web site, meetings and oversees supercentenarian (oldest humans, 110+ years) research. CEO / Executive Director Carl I. Bourhenne Medical Research Foundation (Aging Intervention Foundation), an IRS approved 501(c)(3) nonprofit. Early contributor to Supercentenarian Research Foundation. Co-Founder Geroscience Healthspan Forum. Active contributor to numerous initiatives to increase healthy years of life. Co-authored book on conventional, practical methods available today to slow the processes of aging – nutrition, exercise, behavior modification and motivation, stress reduction, proper supplementation, damage caused by improper programs, risk reduction and others. Fundamental understanding of, and experience in the genomics of longevity (internship analyzing and curating longevity gene papers). Biological and technical includes information technology, software development and computer programming, bioinformatics and protein informatics, online education, training programs, regulatory, clinical trials software, medical devices (CAT scanners and related), hospital electrical equipment testing program. Interpersonal skills – good communication, honest, well liked, works well in teams or alone. Real world experience collaborating in interdisciplinary teams in fast paced organizations. Uses technology to advance our shared mission. Education: MBA 1985 University of Southern California -- Deans List, Albert Quon Community Service Award (for volunteering with the American Longevity Association and helping an elderly lady every other week), George S. May Scholarship, CA State Fellowship. BA psychology, psychobiology emphasis 1983 California State University Fullerton Physiological courses as well as core courses (developmental, abnormal etc). UCLA Psychobiology 1978, one brief but fast moving and fulfilling quarter. Main interest was the electrochemical basis of consciousness. Also seminars at the NeuroPsychiatric Institute. Other: Ongoing conferences, meetings and continuing education. Aging, computer software and information technology. Some molecular biology, biotech, bio and protein informatics, computer aided drug design, clinical medical devices, electronics, HIPAA, fundraising through the Assoc. of Fundraising Professionals. Previous careers include: Marketing Increasing skill set and successes in virtually all phases, with valuable experience in locating people and companies with the greatest need and interest in a product or service, and sitting across the table with decision makers and working out agreements favorable to all. Information Technology: Management, data analysis and programming in commercial and clinical trials systems, and bioinformatics and protein informatics. As IT Director at Newport Beach, CA based technology organization Success Family of Continuing Education Companies, provided online software solutions for insurance and financial professionals in small to Fortune 500 size companies. We were successful with lean team organization (the slower moving competition was unable to create similar software systems). Medical devices: At Omnimedical in Paramount CA developed and managed quality assurance dept. and training depts. for engineers, physicians and technicians. Designed hospital equipment testing program for hospital services division. In my early 20’s I was a musician, and studied psychology and music. Interned with the intention of becoming a music therapist. These experiences helped develop valuable skills used today to advance our shared mission of creating aging solutions.
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