Re: [GRG] New Study of Longevity Risk

Dear Leonid,

Thank you! Very interesting!

1. “use a Sacher estimate”

The curvature of the qx I obtain is greater (/starts at earlier ages) than what would be expected with a Gompertz Law (your graph on p16 of ) so there might be something. I will use a Sacher estimate and will spread the message around me.

2. interesting points IMHO for GRG readers:

— GRG data

You refer to pionneering papers that found some mortality plateau for supercentenarians, before the technical issues that you highlight were so highlighted. You do not mention the analysis of GRG data with a Sacher estimate; or have I
missed something?;-)

— clarity on HMD smoothing

I understand that instead of finding the information at an official place, someone told you that “these and these but not those” cohorts were raw data or smoothed data (p4 you write “Data for
1900 and later birth cohorts were smoothed using Kannisto formula (Jdanov, personal communication)”) ==> given the high number of people who use HMD data, do you think it would be difficult to have somewhere online the list of HMD data that is smoothed or not? whom to ask?

Very best regards


PS: just for the record, I re-attach the HMD curves (Swiss
data being normal) and accordingly rectify my email below

De : Leonid Gavrilov À : Gerontology Research Group Cc : Natalia Gavrilova ; Edouard Debonneuil Envoyé le : Dimanche 10 août 2014 5h28Objet : Re: [GRG] New Study of Longevity Risk

Dear Edouard,
Thank you for your interesting reply.  The Society of Actuaries will
publish a peer-reviewed monograph soon, which will address your
2014 Living to 100 Monograph, look for our book chapter there, when it is
published:Mortality Trajectories at Extreme Old Ages: A Comparison Study of
Different Data Sources on Old-Age MortalityIf you can not wait for final official publication, a preliminary
draft of this chapter is available here:, you may find interesting Appendix A at pages 15-18
Hope it helps.
We will have a long international scientific travel starting this Monday,
and we will be out of office with limited e-mail connection until
September 15:

So we can discuss the remaining questions when we return back in


About Johnny Adams

My full-time commitment is to slow and ultimately reverse age related functional decline to increase healthy years of life. I’ve been active in this area since the 1970s, steadily building skills and accomplishments. I have a good basic understanding of the science of aging, and have many skills that complement those of scientists so they can focus on science to advance our shared mission. Broad experience Top skills: administration, management, information technology (data and programming), communications, writing, marketing, market research and analysis, public speaking, forging ethical win-win outcomes among stakeholders (i.e. high level "selling"). Knowledge in grant writing, fundraising, finance. Like most skilled professionals, I’m best described as a guy who defines an end point, then figures out how to get there. I enjoy the conception, design, execution and successful completion of a grand plan. Executive Director Gerontology Research Group (GRG). Manages Email discussion forum, web site, meetings and oversees supercentenarian (oldest humans, 110+ years) research. CEO / Executive Director Carl I. Bourhenne Medical Research Foundation (Aging Intervention Foundation), an IRS approved 501(c)(3) nonprofit. Early contributor to Supercentenarian Research Foundation. Co-Founder Geroscience Healthspan Forum. Active contributor to numerous initiatives to increase healthy years of life. Co-authored book on conventional, practical methods available today to slow the processes of aging – nutrition, exercise, behavior modification and motivation, stress reduction, proper supplementation, damage caused by improper programs, risk reduction and others. Fundamental understanding of, and experience in the genomics of longevity (internship analyzing and curating longevity gene papers). Biological and technical includes information technology, software development and computer programming, bioinformatics and protein informatics, online education, training programs, regulatory, clinical trials software, medical devices (CAT scanners and related), hospital electrical equipment testing program. Interpersonal skills – good communication, honest, well liked, works well in teams or alone. Real world experience collaborating in interdisciplinary teams in fast paced organizations. Uses technology to advance our shared mission. Education: MBA 1985 University of Southern California -- Deans List, Albert Quon Community Service Award (for volunteering with the American Longevity Association and helping an elderly lady every other week), George S. May Scholarship, CA State Fellowship. BA psychology, psychobiology emphasis 1983 California State University Fullerton Physiological courses as well as core courses (developmental, abnormal etc). UCLA Psychobiology 1978, one brief but fast moving and fulfilling quarter. Main interest was the electrochemical basis of consciousness. Also seminars at the NeuroPsychiatric Institute. Other: Ongoing conferences, meetings and continuing education. Aging, computer software and information technology. Some molecular biology, biotech, bio and protein informatics, computer aided drug design, clinical medical devices, electronics, HIPAA, fundraising through the Assoc. of Fundraising Professionals. Previous careers include: Marketing Increasing skill set and successes in virtually all phases, with valuable experience in locating people and companies with the greatest need and interest in a product or service, and sitting across the table with decision makers and working out agreements favorable to all. Information Technology: Management, data analysis and programming in commercial and clinical trials systems, and bioinformatics and protein informatics. As IT Director at Newport Beach, CA based technology organization Success Family of Continuing Education Companies, provided online software solutions for insurance and financial professionals in small to Fortune 500 size companies. We were successful with lean team organization (the slower moving competition was unable to create similar software systems). Medical devices: At Omnimedical in Paramount CA developed and managed quality assurance dept. and training depts. for engineers, physicians and technicians. Designed hospital equipment testing program for hospital services division. In my early 20’s I was a musician, and studied psychology and music. Interned with the intention of becoming a music therapist. These experiences helped develop valuable skills used today to advance our shared mission of creating aging solutions.
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